Which voters the GOP lost is as important as why they were lost. To a degree those concepts are intertwined.
How to Put the GOP Back Together
“To call it a wave. I don’t think would be fully accurate. It’s the political equivalent of a meteor strike,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, when describing the 2026 elections for Republicans, even though Republicans held on to his state’s governorship and U.S. Senate seat.
There are thoughtful – and petty – conversations taking place among GOP leaders and those trying to influence the direction of the GOP. Was the bigger problem the ongoing war with Iran or inflation? Or both? That analysis may impact how President Trump governs and how GOP members of Congress behave – both in their lame duck session, and in the next session.
Unfortunately, this will include both thoughtful, candid discussions, as well as petty blame, with the added scenario of maybe “handing over” political adversaries to Democrats to rake over the political coals. Thoughtful discussions based on data, a review of strategy, tactics, candidates, messaging, and anecdotes from the ground are necessary.
But only to a degree.
Inflation/affordability and the war were particularly devastating to the new GOP – the GOP built around Trump’s platform and messaging.
Recent inflation was a negative for all voters, from gasoline to electricity and groceries. But the post-2015 GOP relies heavily on blue collar voters – those who felt as though they had been falling behind. They believed that nobody in Washington – nobody powerful – cared. Worse, many believed the elites callously left them behind to achieve their own power or wealth.
Enter Trump, who built his base by telling them he would not forget them – even campaigning in Appalachia and Harlem. Plus, he fought with the powerful – even mocking them, be they at Harvard or the New York Times. He protected their values and said out loud what they felt in their hearts: woke was crazy and harmful.
Yet rising everyday costs pushed away part of team GOP. Some voted for Democrats, with even more of that group just staying home. Initial estimates suggest that Democratic turnout was 6-13% higher than Republican.
Part of President Trump’s message was that he opposed endless wars. That message, coupled with his promise not to allow elites to crush working families – or trample their values – was part of his outreach to disaffected Americans who rarely voted.
The war with Iran – that they didn’t see coming – pushed away another part of his new GOP. Many still have questions. Yes, if one listens to the pointed remarks by Secretary of State Rubio, thoughtful analysis from foreign policy experts, or the blunt talk from U.S. Senator John Kennedy, many of those questions are answered.
So, too, is the clear analysis and explanation of rising energy costs from Treasury Secretary Bessent – the complexities of many factors from Russia to Iran, to the hangover from Biden/Harris (and Gov. Newsom) threats to ban fossil fuels.
But for too many Trump voters – key legs of the GOP “stool” – Trump promised peace and prosperity. And we had war with Iran and $4.59/gallon gasoline.
Allies were making their case, but many of the GOP base weren’t hearing it – literally or taking it to heart. They’re focused on daily life and – if there was to be an explanation for the perceived contradictions, they needed to hear it from Trump.
Add in the Democrats’ loud opposition to tariffs – effortlessly blaming Trump for acting alone and causing pain.
No peace. Prosperity slipping out of reach for many new GOP voters. A GOP Congress that seemed ineffective, if not out of touch. Add in the new cult-like voters in today’s Democratic Party – and the Democrats are partying like it’s 1974, post-Watergate.
Since Obama, many former Republicans are now the Democratic base, and they have embraced (or tolerated) woke and its policies. They’re not coming back in 2028.
To win back their skeptical and frustrated base, the GOP’s charge is to find a way to reclaim trust on the economy, win the war in Iran and pushback against Woke 2.0. Return to its platform and values, with genuine outreach to those voters who began to consider the GOP in 2024.
With Democrats talking of eliminating the Electoral College, making D.C. and Puerto Rico states, packing the Supreme Court, impeaching cabinet members, and enacting Woke 2.0, the GOP needs to begin its rebuild soon.
Win the war, lower gas prices, earn back trust. And remember: the first 2028 primaries are only 14 months away.
Guy Ciarrocchi writes for RealClear Pennsylvania and Broad+Liberty. A Senior Fellow with the Commonwealth Foundation, follow Guy @PhilaFreedomGuy
