Democrats, GOP Both Off Message
In recent weeks events have knocked both Republicans and Democrats off message. The GOP should be focusing on the recent round of statistics that show the U.S. economy is improving, and Democrats win when they focus on the issue of health care.
There is no doubt the nation’s health care system is in crisis. The so-called Affordable Care Act, best known as Obamacare, has been an abject failure. Its provisions have resulted in skyrocketing health care costs which have been somewhat mitigated by taxpayer-financed subsidies. One such set of subsidies, passed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, ended at the close of 2025.
While the ending of those subsidies accounts for a very small percentage of health care cost increases – and the benefits accrue mostly to insurance companies – Democrats have successfully made their expiration the villain. A rare fracture in House GOP unity occurred last week when a few apostate Republicans, including three from Pennsylvania, joined with Democrats to pass an extension of those subsidies.
That should have been the focus of Democrat messaging. But a tragic event intervened. A protestor was shot and killed as she attempted to run down an ICE agent with her car. The Left’s protest-industrial machinery when into high gear taking to the streets in Minneapolis and in cities across the nation having found their latest reason to parade in front of the television cameras.
In last year’s presidential election opinion polls consistently showed illegal immigration and the economy topped the list of voter concerns. Removing illegal aliens – especially those who have committed crimes – has been a top priority of the Trump Administration which has been highly successful in its efforts.
Thus did the Left place the spotlight on an issue where their policies are widely unpopular. Worse, the constant taking to the streets in protest over every action of the Trump Administration has worn thin. The American public has tuned them out.
Events have also knocked Republicans off message. As 2025 drew to a close President Trump was back on the campaign trail as he and other administration officials focused on the affordability issue and on the economy. This is a key issue set for voters.
Then came the successful capture of Venezuelan President Nicholas Madoro in a daring raid executed by the U.S. miliary and intelligence agencies. The spotlight swung from the economy to foreign affairs with the Venezuela raid, more U.S. posturing over Greenland, and the popular uprising in Iran taking center stage.
President Trump’s growing list of foreign policy successes is indeed impressive. But, at the end of the day kitchen table issues matter most. The growing cost of health care is Republican’s Achille’s heel. President Trump has messaged effectively that the focus of health care reform should be on patients rather than insurance companies. But, congressional Republicans have yet to develop a comprehensive, understandable plan.
The Democrat plan in simply to throw more taxpayer dollars into health care subsidies. That, however, is unsustainable in the mid-to-long run. But mid-term elections are upon us, and that simple “solution” is sellable. The GOP, by contrast, must develop a plan to fix a complex, broken system. Doing that is considerably more complicated and difficult to effectively communicate to voters.
The GOP therefore must return to messaging on the economy. The nation is still experiencing a hangover from the Biden Administration’s failed policies that have baked over 22% inflation into the family budget.
Promising signs of an improving economy are already surfacing. Inflation, while still above the Federal Reserve’s 3% annual target rate has dropped and is not showing signs of resurgence. As of last week the Federal Reserve is projecting fourth quarter 2025 GDP growth to have been a healthy 5.4%.
The biggest jolt to the economy will come as federal taxpayers receive higher than usual refund checks. Federal exemption of taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security will manifest in higher refunds. What would have been a large increase in taxes was avoided when the One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended the 2017 middle class tax cuts.
Businesses will benefit from 100% expensing, and removal of federal regulations and their compliance costs. Many businesses are responding to tariffs by moving manufacturing and other operations into the United States. That takes time and those impacts will begin to be felt as 2026 progresses.
Republicans are well positioned to benefit from all these trends. They also benefit by having identifiable leadership while Democrats are floundering caught in the crosscurrents of failed traditional policies and ascendant radical socialism. Foreign policy successes are important, but if the GOP wants to retain its majorities in congress the focus must be on the economy.
(Lowman S. Henry is Chairman &CEO of the Lincoln Institute and host of the weekly American Radio Journal and Lincoln Radio Journal. His e-mail address is lhenry@lincolninstitute.org.)
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