A Gen Z’s Perspective on PA’s Past, Present and Future
By: Josiah Jones, PMA Intern
In 2023, I graduated high school in the small Pennsylvania town I was born and raised in. Three years later, around half of my classmates have left the state permanently for jobs and livelihoods elsewhere. Most of the other half have told me that they too want to leave Pennsylvania one day.
I have come to find that this is not a phenomenon isolated to my town. During my last three years of attending an out-of-state school, I have met countless strangers who have shared with me that their families are originally Pennsylvanians.
These reflections drove me to the numbers. What I found confirmed my suspicions: Pennsylvania is experiencing an out-migration and demographic crisis.
Since 2012, PA has bled a whopping 181,662 net residents to other states. This trend will continue: the Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) is estimating net losses of upwards of 200,000 residents over the next 10 years.
All this moving-out is causing significant impacts on the political front. In 2000, PA had 23 Electoral College votes – two senators and 21 representatives. Since then, we have lost four votes, equivalent to four representatives. The American Redistricting Project is predicting that we will lose another one with the upcoming 2030 Census.
Meanwhile, the Pennsylvanians who remain are aging. As deaths now outnumber births, our working-age population is shrinking while the retiree population explodes. By 2035, the IFO predicts there will be 300,000 more Pennsylvanians over the age of 80. At the same time, our school-age population will drop nearly 10%. For our future, this means less economic growth and higher taxes for those who remain.
It didn’t used to be this way.
In my own family tree, every single branch goes back to ancestors who chose Pennsylvania out of every other state to start their American dream.
In fact, for essentially the entirety of Pennsylvania’s existence, the Keystone State has been…well, the Keystone State.
Politically, we are the home of the Declaration of Independence, Articles of Confederation, and the Constitution. It is on Pennsylvanian soil that the pivotal moment of the Civil War was fought and won for our Union.
Geographically, Pennsylvania is the state that connects the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest. This naturally gives us strategic positioning as a major crossroads for people, goods, and commerce.
But it was our abundant natural resources that truly made us a keystone. The prosperity and jobs they created made Pennsylvania an economic powerhouse that consistently ranked in the top three most populated states from 1790 until the late 20thcentury.
The timber and coal industry made us the literal engine of the Industrial Revolution. The flame soon ignited into a burning fire of economic prosperity with 1859 drilling of the first commercial oil well in Titusville, PA. By World War II, we were the ultimate powerhouse of the Allied war effort. More steel was produced in the Commonwealth than in Germany, Japan, and Italy combined.
So, what happened? Postwar national factors such as foreign competition naturally had their impact, but that does not explain why other states boom while Pennsylvania falls.
To find the answer, one naturally must look at the primary differences between Pennsylvania and booming states like Texas, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee. What will quickly be found are the significant differences in the policies of their respective state governments.
For there to be economic prosperity in a state, there must be jobs created by local businesses. Booming states thus naturally have state policy that creates a pro-business environment. This is what you find in Texas, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
Pennsylvania? The American Legislative Exchange Council just ranked the Commonwealth 45th in economic performance. Why? Our tax burden and our regulatory climate. Pennsylvania has the second-highest gas tax (only behind California by about four cents/gallon), levies one of the highest death taxes in the nation, and the third-highest business/corporate taxes. Unfortunately, state lawmakers from both parties have set the state up for even higher taxes by going on yearly spending sprees and budgeting using gimmicks – ballooning an existing $5 billion structural budget deficit.
Meanwhile, we have neglected the natural resources that made us prosperous. In 2019, then-Governor Wolf entered Pennsylvania into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The result was six years of regulatory uncertainty and disaster, continued by now-Governor Josh Shapiro, that caused an investment freeze on new power plants. The impacts of that are undoubtedly seen on our utility bills today, which are higher than the national average.
The results of our bad policy have made real impacts on jobs for young people. Project after project is proposed in Pennsylvania, faces regulatory uncertainty at various levels of government, and then relocates that investment to a competitor state. It’s not that these projects don’t happen; it’s that they don’t happen here – where we benefit from the growth and jobs.
It does not have to be this way.
Pennsylvania is exceptional – undoubtedly “steeped in glory and tradition,” as our state song says.
Our geography can’t change – we are just as strategically significant as ever. More than that, we still have plenty of valuable natural resources – at least 101 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves right below our feet; enough to single-handedly power the nation’s electric grid for over three years.
In short, the Commonwealth is far from doomed. But it is at a “time for choosing,” as President Reagan would say.
I want my kids to grow up, have their own families, and thrive in the same Commonwealth that the generations of their family did.
For that to happen, the sign needs to be flipped to open again. Our state government must significantly reform our policies, taxes, and regulations. After all, I’m tired of losing friends to Tennessee!
Josiah Jones is a born & raised son of Carlisle, PA. He was a summer 2026 intern at the Pennsylvania Manufacturers’ Association and a student of Politics at Hillsdale College. Post-college, he hopes to start a family and live the American dream in Carlisle, PA – just like the generations of his family did.
