Lincoln Blog

October 10, 2008:

It is time somebody asks the question: Is Pennsylvania still a battleground state in the Presidential election?

The answer, unfortunately is no.
Color it blue.

Look at the polling over the past three weeks. The Real Clear Politics Average now has Obama up by 13.8% in Pennsylvania.

The most recent polling:

Strategic Vision - Obama by 14%
Allentown Morning Call - Obama by 12%
Rasmussen - Obama by 13%
Survey USA - Obama by 15%
Quinnipiac - Obama by 15%

Add in the continued collapse of the stock markets and McCain's abysmal performance in Tuesday night's debate, and all factors point to a continuation of the trend rather than a reversal.

For perspective, President Bush lost Pennsylvania to John Kerry in 2004 by a 3% margin, and he lost the state to Al Gore in 2000 by a 4% margin. You have to go back to 1996 - when Bob Dole challenged incumbent President Bill Clinton - for anything close to what is shaping up this year, and Dole lost by 9%.

Another factor suggesting Pennsylvania is no longer a battleground state, at least in this election, is voter registration. Final numbers should be out next week, but the Democratic voter registration surge appears to have given Obama close to a 1.2 million voter edge. That is about double what Bush faced in competing in Pennsylvania four years ago.

While the big picture - or "big mo" as former President George H.W. Bush called it - is favoring the Democrats, so does the ground game. The Obama forces have assembled one of the most elaborate grassroots operations seen in many years. Meanwhile, the GOP's operation is but a pale shadow of that which kept George W. Bush in contention in 2000 and 2004. You have to wonder what the Republican Party was doing between February when McCain effectively wrapped up the nomination and the onset of the General Election. Clearly it wasn't organizing.

Of course, the election is still over three weeks away. That is several lifetimes in politics, especially in this year which has seen more dramatic twists and turns than any recent Presidential election. But, with 'red" states like Virginia and North Carolina now trending toward Obama; you have to wonder whether Pennsylvania is still a battleground worth fighting on.

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