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Obama Holds Six Point Lead over McCain

Franklin & Marshall Releases National Poll Results

by News Release

FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE NATIONAL POLL
Lancaster, PA

For immediate release Thursday, 6/26/08

Please find attached and below the results of the June 2008 Franklin and Marshall College National Poll produced at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA in partnership with Hearst-Argyle. Complete results can be found in the attachment or at http://politics.fandm.edu/.
Key Findings:

1) Barack Obama leads John McCain nationally by six percentage points (42% to 36%), while 15 percent are undecided and seven percent would vote for another candidate.

2) Obama leads among women (44% to 34%) and narrowly among men (40% to 38%). Obama leads among those under 55 years of age (55% to 28%), blacks (91% to 3%), Hispanics (42% to 34%), and those living in the Northeast (50% to 29%) and Midwest (45% to 32%). McCain has an advantage among those over 55 (43% to 34%), whites (42% to 35%), fundamentalist Christians (41% to 33%), Catholics (42% to 36%), and military veterans (46% to 28%). Obama has an advantage among independents (36% to 29%), with 24 percent indicating they don't have a preference.

3) A substantial majority (78%) of registered Americans believe the country is off on the wrong track, and nearly half (42%) say they are worse off financially this year than last. Obama is the choice of those who say the country is off on the wrong track (49% to 29%), while McCain has substantial support from those who say the county is moving in the right direction (64% to 18%). Obama leads among those who say their personal finances are worse off compared to last year (48% to 30%), and McCain does well among those whose personal finances are better than last year (51% to 30%).

4) The economy (38%) and the Iraq War (18%) are most often mentioned as the issues that will influence presidential vote choices in the fall, and Obama leads McCain among registered adults who are primarily concerned with these two issues. Relatedly, two-thirds of respondents cite the economy (24%), gasoline prices and energy (22%), and personal finances and cost of living issues (21%) as the most important problems facing their families.

These results and the attached analyses are based on the results of interviews conducted June 16-22, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll's Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Manager, Jennifer Harding. The data included in this release represent the responses of 1,501 adult residents of the United States who are currently registered to vote. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. Survey results were weighted using an iterative weighting algorithm. The sample error for registered adults is +/- 2.5 percent.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin & Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin and Marshall College
Lancaster, Pa. 17604-3003
717-291-4052 or 717-575-2164