PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Clinton lead over Obama increases
by News Release
FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL LANCASTER, PA
For immediate release Thursday, 3/20/08
Please find attached the results of the March 2008 Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll), produced at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA. This poll has assessed the views of the residents and voters of the state since 1992, and past polls and other analysis can be found at http://politics.fandm.edu.
Key Findings:
1) Hillary Clinton has increased her lead over Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic nomination, 51% to 35% among likely voters. Her lead among likely Democratic primary voters has doubled since the February 2008 poll, conducted February 13-18, when her advantage was seven points, 44% to 37%. Clinton leads among voters in virtually every demographic group. Obama has the advantage among non-whites and voters in Philadelphia, but he does not yet hold an advantage among young adults—a group he has won by large margins in many early primary states. Male voters are evenly split between Clinton and Obama, and nearly one in seven (13%) likely Democratic voters remains undecided.
2) Clinton continues to be very popular among the state's Democrats with more than six in ten (65%) Democrats having a favorable opinion of her. Her favorability ratings have changed little since last summer. The proportion of Democrats who have a favorable opinion of Obama, on the other hand, has dropped from 57% in February to 47% in the current poll.
3) Clinton supporters most often cite healthcare (46%) as the issue they think of first when they hear her name, followed by the economy (17%)--an increase from 9% in February). For Obama supporters, the Iraq War (26%), healthcare (14%), the economy (14%), and change in general (14%) most frequently come to mind when they hear his name.
4) Democrats most often cite the economy (39%), the Iraq War (23%), and healthcare (18%) as key issues for their presidential vote choice. These figures have not changed much since February, when the economy (35%), healthcare (19%) and the Iraq War (17%) were most frequently cited.
These results and the attached analyses are based on the results of interviews conducted March 11-16, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll's Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Manager, Jennifer Harding. Interviews were completed with 464 registered Democrats in Pennsylvania. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated via random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. The sample error for the entire sample is +/- 4.5 percent. Among the 294 likely Democratic voters, the sample error is slightly larger (+/- 5.7 percent). In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of error that could arise, such as questionnaire design, non-response, and the interviewing process itself.
This Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV, Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV, WPVI-TV/6ABC, and Times-Shamrock Newspapers. It may be used in whole or part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.
Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin & Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin and Marshall College
Lancaster, Pa. 17604-3003
717-291-4052 or 717- 575-2164
