PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
by News Release
For immediate release Thursday, 2/21/08
Please find attached the results of the February 2008 Pennsylvania Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll), produced at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, PA. This poll has assessed the views of the residents and voters of the state since 1992, and past polls and other analysis can be found at http://politics.fandm.edu.
Key Findings:
1) Hillary Clinton still leads Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic nomination, 44% to 32%. Clinton's margin has dropped eight points since January, where she led Obama 40% to 20%. Clinton leads Obama among women, whites, and those with the least education. Obama does better among non-whites and those with a college degree. Obama does not yet hold an advantage among young adults, which is a group he has won by large margins in many early primary states. One in five (20%) Democrats remain undecided, and about two in five (37%) respondents who voice a candidate choice are still making up their minds.
2) Clinton continues to be very popular among the state's Democrats, with more than six in ten (62%) having a favorable opinion of her. Clinton's favorability ratings among Democrats have barely changed since last summer. Obama, on the other hand, continues to increase the proportion of Democrats who have a favorable opinion of him (57% compared to 51% in January and 45% in August).
3) Clinton supporters most often cite healthcare (54%) as the issue they think of first when they hear her name. For Obama supporters, the Iraq War (21%), healthcare (17%), and change in general (17%) most frequently come to mind when they hear his name.
4) In the presidential match-ups, the race in Pennsylvania could not get any closer. John McCain and Hillary Clinton each garner 46% of the vote, and McCain leads Barack Obama by only one percentage point (44% to 43%). In the McCain/Clinton match-up, McCain has an advantage among independents, whereas independent votes break about evenly in the McCain/Obama match-up.
5) Democrats cite the economy (35%--an increase from 29% in January), healthcare (19%), and the Iraq War (17%--a decline from 26% in January), as the key issues in their presidential vote. Republicans most frequently cite the economy (30%), homeland security (15%), the Iraq War (12%), and moral and family values (11%).
6) Pennsylvanians continue to view President George Bush's job performance as weak. Only 22% of respondents believe he is doing an excellent or a good job, while 77% say he's doing only a fair or poor job.
These results and the attached analyses are based on the results of interviews conducted February 13-18, 2008. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll's Director, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist, Berwood Yost, and Project Manager, Jennifer Harding. Interviews were completed with 640 registered adults in Pennsylvania. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated via random digit dialing, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. The sample error for the entire sample is +/- 3.9 percent. Among the 303 registered Democrats, the sample error is slightly larger (+/- 5.6 percent). In addition to sampling error, this survey is also subject to other sources of error, such as questionnaire design, non-response, and the interviewing process itself.
This Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV, Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV, and Times-Shamrock Newspapers. It may be used in whole or part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.
Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin & Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin and Marshall College
Lancaster, Pa. 17604-3003
717-291-4052 or 717- 575-2164
