PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
by Chris Freind
For all who relish the thought of a Democratic White House next January, one word is in order: beware.
If John McCain captures the White House, it certainly won't be the result of his youthful appearance, charming personality and conservative positions. Instead, it is more likely that the Democrats will have limped through one of the most catastrophic events in American political history. And its road to recovery will be measured in years.
Super Tuesday produced no clear winner; Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both won numerous states. The delegate count now gives a slight edge to Clinton, 845-765.
Now for the simple math. Of the 3,253 total pledged delegates, 2,025 are needed to secure the nomination. Since 1,636 delegates have already been allotted, that leaves Clinton needing 1181 more for victory. Here's the impossible part. There are only 1,617 delegates left, so she would need to win roughly 75% of them to win.
And that's not going to happen.
So what does happen?
The "super delegates" will decide their Party's nominee at a brokered convention. Since super delegates are comprised of Establishment insiders, and no one typifies the "political machine Establishment" more than Hillary and Bill, the outlook is very bleak for Obama. To illustrate, Hillary already has a 2-1 advantage in super delegates.
Which candidate enters the convention with more delegates is anyone's guess. But with Obama winning 13 of 21 Super Tuesday contests (Hillary won the big delegate states), and the Clinton campaign downplaying expectations in upcoming states, it is quite conceivable that Obama will have a plurality.
If there's one thing the Clintons do better than anyone, it's make political deals. And since the August convention is for all the apples, their apparatus is in full swing. They will do whatever it takes, use any means necessary, and call in every favor to bring the super delegates into their camp. The back room deals will reach an unprecedented level. While Obama generates intense interest around the country with his (as yet undefined) message of "change", draws immense crowds and raises staggering amounts of money, he has been in Washington for only three years. In a town built on a "what have you done for me" mentality, Barack Obama simply cannot compete.
Here's the nightmare:
The candidate who won more states, possibly garnered more delegates, and clearly energized the Democratic Party more than anyone in recent memory, has the door slammed in his face by party leaders.
Oh, and he's black. Which means that cries of racism and Hillary "stealing the election" from the poster boy of the New Democratic Party will reach a fever pitch. Right or wrong, Obama is now perceived as the new JFK, a young, charismatic uniter hailing from the Land of Lincoln. To have a Clinton, with her image of a snake-oil salesman, stealing the nomination would be tantamount to Democratic Party suicide.
Wounds will open that will not heal for years, let alone in time to pull out a victory two months later. The Democrats will split like the parting of the Red Sea, and the entire party will be awash in bitter resentment. Even Obama's soothing oratory for party unity will go unheeded. For many Democrats, principle above party will rule the day, and the rift will simply widen.
If you think the 2000 election was divisive, "you ain't seen nothin' yet".
Is this scenario going overboard? All one has to do is look at how the Clintons played the race card in South Carolina, and how they set up Super Tuesday as a referendum on white-versus-black. It is a horrendously bigoted strategy that exposes the Clintons as hypocrites who care about nothing but power, but it worked. Obama has been prevented from winning the nomination outright, and the media, despite its best efforts, cannot coronate him as the Democratic standard-bearer.
One question above all comes to mind. By dropping out before Super Tuesday, is John Edwards the dumbest, or smartest, man in the country?
For that answer, we'll have to wait until August.
Chris Freind can be reached at CF@TheBulletin.us
