PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
by Salena Zito
Pennsylvania's April 22 presidential primary, usually written off as meaningless, could mean everything this year.
If no clear front-runners emerge in either party after Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 and another flurry of primaries through March, the Pennsylvania primary would become a key battleground. It's the only primary in April and the last big prize before the Democratic and Republican conventions.
"I do believe that the Pennsylvania primary, which I had initially thought would not be relevant, is now becoming more and more relevant to the Republican nominee and has an outside chance of being important to the Democratic nominee," Gov. Ed Rendell said.
The governor had pushed unsuccessfully to have Pennsylvania's primary in February because so many other states were having early contests. The plan died in the state Senate.
"Ironically, it could be that coming late in this particular year could be advantageous," said Bert A. Rockman, chairman of the political science department at Purdue University.
Those vying for the Republican and Democratic nominations have split the early nominating contests, with no clear front-runners emerging. Contests on Saturday in the South Carolina Republican primary and Nevada caucuses continued that trend.
U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are locked in a close battle for the Democratic nomination.
Clinton, the winner in New Hampshire, won the popular vote in Nevada, but Obama, who ran second, gained one more delegate -- 13 to Clinton's 12 -- according to an AP analysis of caucus results. Obama won more delegates, despite getting fewer overall votes, because of the proportional manner in which Nevada awards delegates. Obama earlier triumphed in the Iowa caucus. The next showdown will be the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday.
The outlook is more muddled on the Republican side.
U.S. Sen. John McCain, the New Hampshire winner, took South Carolina. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who captured Michigan, won the Nevada caucus. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa, ran a strong second to McCain in South Carolina. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is pinning his entire campaign on the Jan. 29 primary in Florida.
The fractured nature of the race has led Republican leaders to speculate about the possibility of the first contested GOP convention in 60 years. The Republicans' last multi-ballot convention was in 1948, when New York Gov. Thomas Dewey prevailed on the third ballot only to lose the general election to Democrat Harry S. Truman.
Still, some analysts are skeptical that either race will continue in earnest beyond Feb. 5 -- so-called Super Tuesday -- when more than 20 states hold nominating contests and nearly half the convention delegates are up for grabs. More than 40 states, territories and the District of Columbia have primaries or caucuses before Pennsylvania.
"It is perfectly possible that, as late as it is, the Pennsylvania primary will still matter in at least one party," said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Will it happen? The odds certainly don't favor it."
Obama and Clinton would have to keep splitting contests evenly for Pennsylvania to be a factor for Democrats, he said.
"That is tough to do," Sabato said. "At some point, if one candidate gets a head of steam and wins several big ones in a row, momentum may be unstoppable."
On the other hand, he said, there are "strong, well-funded candidates in both parties who might be able to win enough delegates ... through March to keep money flowing and their candidacies alive."
A Pennsylvania presidential primary that matters would result in a "mass convergence" on Pennsylvania, said Michael Barley, spokesman for the Pennsylvania Republican Committee.
"It's going to be an extremely exciting time, if that's the case," he said.
Pittsburgh-based Democratic consultant Marty Marks agreed.
"It would become a real hot battle," he said. "You'd see an influx of seasoned staff people coming from different parts of the country. You would see relentless phone banking to talk to voters. (Candidates) would buy everything they could on the airwaves."
David M. Brown can be reached at dbrown@tribweb.com
Salena Zito
Tribune-Review Political Reporter
Primary Colors 08' Blog
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