PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
PAtownhall.com
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
Pennsylvania's Marketplace of Ideas
by Salena Zito
If "change" is the word overused by every presidential candidate,
"brokered convention" is the overused political concept of the moment.
The political chattering class -- those who participate and those who
observe -- is speculating on the possibility of knock-down, dragged-out
convention floor fights in one or both parties.
Why this sudden love affair with the prospect of a brokered
convention?
Probably because it continues the drama of this never-ending
presidential cycle in which the country is knee-deep.
A brokered convention happens when no front-runner emerges from the
primaries. If no candidate holds the magic number of delegates (for
Democrats, a majority plus one, or 2,205 delegates; for Republicans,
1,191), then you'll see a whole lot of horse-trading.
"It is difficult to imagine, but not impossible" says Mark Siegel, a
longtime Democrat consultant and former executive director of the
Democratic National Committee.
"Let's say Clinton has 44 percent of the delegates and Obama has 39
going into the convention," he explains. "Well, we will have this mass
of superdelegates" - elected officials - "that are uncommitted up for
grabs."
But Siegel predicts any horse-trading over those and other delegates
will happen well in advance of either party's convention.
In other words, no smoke-filled rooms, no big-city political bosses
holding onto delegate votes. Those days are long gone.
Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, the DNC's chairman during the 2000
Florida recount, also questions the likelihood of a brokered convention.
For one to occur, he says, a party would need more than two candidates
still in contention heading into the convention, which he describes as
"technically possible" but a "remote" possibility.
It could happen on the Democrats' side, Rendell says, if John Edwards
remains sincere about taking his candidacy to the convention and if
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have split the primary delegates. "Then
you could go to the convention with Edwards being the balance of power.
"But remember the superdelegates," he adds. "Those elected officials
are not committed, per se, so they could fall into place before the
convention for either Clinton or Obama, and that would win the day."
A bigger chance exists for Republicans to take their primary fight
into their convention if the race continues as it has, with a different
winner each week.
"You could have a real possibility of four contenders going to
Minneapolis," Rendell predicts. "It is probably the most significant
opportunity for a brokered convention."
Longtime Republican National Committee member Morton Blackwell of
Virginia agrees that is a real possibility.
"Which means the GOP nominee could actually be decided only after
delegates cast multiple ballots at the national nominating convention,"
says Blackwell, a former national delegate for Barry Goldwater. "And
those ballots can go into perpetuity, until a winner is decided."
Michael Barone, a senior writer at U.S. News & World Report and
author of "The Almanac of American Politics," says talk of brokered
conventions is "ludicrous."
"Keep this in mind - the party that has its nominee selected ahead of
time is the party that has the advantage going into the general
election."
