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Salena Zito

Obama, Huckabee Make Case in Iowa

by Salena Zito

With the wind of surging campaigns at their backs and New Hampshire on
the other side of their current Iowa momentums, they have nowhere to go
but forward, to see where potential Iowa caucus wins might take them.

Both are men in forward motion in their respective parties. With 40-odd
days left until the first precinct count in Iowa, they are beating
expectations and inevitability by pulling ahead in polls.

But what does it all mean and how did they get here?

Start with Obama. His rise to the top of the Democrats' heap can be
attributed to three things: money, a top-notch organization and that key
message of change that is so appealing to Democrats. From the moment he
stepped into Iowa, he has siphoned supporters from John Edwards, the
party's original change-agent, and never looked back.

If Obama beats Edwards and Hillary Clinton in Iowa, then Edwards is out
and Clinton is on the ropes. Despite her massive lead in national
polling, an Obama win makes her more vulnerable than conventional wisdom
dictates. Deep concern still exists in the Democrats' psyche about
Clinton's ability to win nationally and her polarizing effect on voters.

Winning Iowa does not mean Obama clinches the Democrats' ticket; Clinton
would survive such a loss -- no one should ever bet against her. Yet
Obama has one heck of a chance to be the nominee if he is Iowa's choice
in January.

Right now, he needs a better game plan in New Hampshire, where he has
failed to soak up Clinton's eroding support. While she dropped 7
percentage points in the latest University of New Hampshire Survey
Center poll, the candidate who gained wasn't Obama. It was New Mexico
Gov. Bill Richardson.

For Obama to have a sustainable campaign out of Iowa, he must pick away
at Clinton's vulnerabilities and supporters. He also must reach out to
Richardson, Edwards and Chris Dodd supporters and convince them he can
be a winner for the party, not only on primary night but in the general
election.

From left field to right field and the Iowa insurgency of Mike Huckabee:
He has climbed to the near top of the GOP pile with considerably fewer
resources than his Democrat counterpart; his money is tight and so is
his organization. He has relied on shoe leather, likability and
old-fashioned retail politics.

Conservative Christians make up 40 percent to 50 percent of the GOP
turnout in Iowa and that explains a lot. He's a Southern Baptist
preacher, so folksy and plain-speaking that he has become the new John
McCain of old. Tack on Republicans' queasiness with their field of
candidates; their unsettled psyche has given an alternative like
Huckabee a second glance.

Huckabee attributes his surge in the Iowa polls to his authenticity as a
candidate. "Well, to be coarse, Iowans like their BS to be on the ground
so that they can step around it, not (have it) thrown at them by
candidates," he says. "They want to know, when a person is speaking,
that he is telling what he really believes."

If Huckabee is the story coming out of Iowa, he needs to remember that
not all previous Republican stories out of Iowa did all that well.
Remember 1988? Bob Dole and Pat Robertson were first and second in Iowa
while George H.W. Bush ran third.

Huckabee is spending the bulk of his time in Iowa now, with brief forays
to New Hampshire. Yet like Obama, he has no plans on being a "one-hit
wonder."

"I know I need to go to New Hampshire with momentum," he says. "I cannot
go there from a point of inertia."

For either man, Iowa wins will be short-lived celebrations. If both win,
smart money has them on airplanes to New Hampshire before their victory
nights are over.

Iowa can be a notoriously bad predictor of political futures. Not only
is it not particularly representative of American demographics, it is a
caucus state appealing to activists in both parties.

If they win, Obama and Huckabee need to make the case that neither is an
Iowa anomaly and that they can deliver the general election to their
parties.