Quinnipiac: Clinton Surging in PA

August 9, 2016 – Clinton Tied In Florida, Up In Ohio, Surging In Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds

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FLORIDA: Clinton 46 – Trump 45
OHIO: Clinton 49 – Trump 45
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 52 – Trump 42

With huge gender gaps marking the presidential race, Democrat Hillary Clinton is in a virtual likely voter tie with Republican Donald Trump in Florida, but holds the slimmest of leads in Ohio and a 10-point advantage in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

In a campaign driven by negatives, most Trump supporters say they mainly are voting anti- Clinton while many Clinton supporters say they are voting anti-Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. This is the first survey of likely voters in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

The presidential matchups show:

Florida – Clinton at 46 percent to Trump’s 45 percent;

Ohio – Clinton edges Trump 49 – 45 percent;

Pennsylvania – Clinton leads Trump 52 – 42 percent.

With third party candidates in the race, results are:
Florida – Clinton and Trump tied at 43 – 43 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;

Ohio – Clinton at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, with Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 3 percent;

Pennsylvania – Clinton tops Trump 48 – 39 percent with 7 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.

"This Swing State Poll shows a mixed result for the presidential candidates, although certainly with an overall edge for Secretary Hillary Clinton. She has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania and the narrowest of edges in Ohio, but Florida, with the largest cache of Electoral College votes is a tie," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"When voters are asked about a four-way ballot that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Trump picks up a point or two against Secretary Clinton in each of the three states."

"It is not that her voters are in love with Secretary Clinton — they just dislike her less than they disdain Trump. In fact, among Clinton voters in all three states more than four in 10 say their opposition to Trump, rather than their liking of her, is the main reason for their vote. Among Trump voters, dislike of Secretary Clinton is even a larger factor in their choice. Among Trump voters, well over half say they back him because they dislike her."

Clinton holds leads of 13 to 23 percentage points among women, while Trump’s lead among men ranges from 5 to 12 percentage points,

Clinton and Trump both get negative favorability ratings in each state.

First Lady Michelle Obama gets the highest favorability scores in each state, followed by President Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton and Melania Trump, although many voters say they don’t know enough about Ms. Trump to form an opinion.

Florida

Florida women back Clinton 53 – 40 percent, while men back Trump 51 – 39 percent. Republicans back Trump 91 – 5 percent, while Clinton leads 89 – 8 percent among Democrats. Independent voters are divided with 42 percent for Clinton and 41 percent for Trump. White voters back Trump 57 – 36 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 68 – 21 percent.

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 39 – 55 percent for her and 39 – 54 percent for him. Other favorability ratings are:
61 – 27 percent for First Lady Michelle Obama;
53 – 43 percent for President Barack Obama;
53 – 40 percent for former President and potential First Husband Bill Clinton;
31 – 23 percent for potential First Lady Melania Trump.
Among Clinton supporters, 42 percent say the main reason is pro-Clinton, while 41 percent say their main motive is anti-Trump and 13 percent say they back the Democratic nominees.

Among Trump supporters, only 29 percent say they are pro-Trump, while 54 percent are anti-Clinton and 10 percent say they back the Republican nominee.

"The closeness of the Florida race is seen inside the numbers. Independent voters are split 42 – 41 percent; she leads by 13 percent among women, while he is up 12 points among men. They have the same favorable rating among voters, 39 percent," Brown said.

Ohio

Ohio women back Clinton 54 – 39 percent, while men back Trump 51 – 43 percent. Trump leads 84 – 13 percent among Republicans and 50 – 39 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 95 – 4 percent. White voters back Trump 53 – 41 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 83 – 11 percent.

Ohio voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 40 – 55 percent for her and 34 – 58 percent for him. Other favorability ratings are:
58 – 27 percent for First Lady Michelle Obama;
52 – 47 percent for President Barack Obama;
52 – 44 percent for President Bill Clinton;
27 – 21 percent for potential First Lady Melania Trump.
Among Clinton supporters, 48 percent say they are anti-Trump; 34 percent are pro-Clinton, and 15 percent say they back the Democratic nominee.

Among Trump supporters, 26 percent say they are pro-Trump, while 61 percent are anti- Clinton and 9 percent say they back the Republican nominee.

"Nine out of 10 Ohio voters say their minds are made up and they will not change their mind when it comes time to cast their ballot," Brown said. "There is no statistical difference between Clinton or Trump voters on this question. Ohio does not appear to be fertile ground for third party candidates with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein stuck in mid-single digits."

Pennsylvania

Keystone State women back Clinton 59 – 36 percent, while men back Trump 49 – 44 percent. Republicans back Trump 83 – 14 percent, while Clinton leads 92 – 5 percent among Democrats. Independent voters are divided with 48 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Trump. White voters are divided with 49 percent for Trump and 46 percent for Clinton. Non-white voters go to Clinton 81 – 8 percent.

Pennsylvania voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 44 – 51 percent for her and 36 – 57 percent for him. Other favorability ratings are:
63 – 25 percent for Michelle Obama;
56 – 41 percent for President Obama;
52 – 43 percent for former President Clinton;
28 – 21 percent for potential First Lady Melania Trump.
Among Clinton supporters, 37 percent say they are pro-Clinton, while 48 percent are anti- Trump and 10 percent say they back the Democratic nominee.

Among Trump supporters, 32 percent say they are pro-Trump, while 54 percent are anti- Clinton and 9 percent say they back the Republican nominee.

"Let’s face it: Pennsylvania likely voters are not exactly enthralled with either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Trump, who portrays himself as a job creator, is suddenly paddling upstream in a state that needs jobs. That has to be a red flag.

"There also is a gender gap as Clinton wins by 23 points among women, while Trump wins by 5 points among men."

From July 30 – August 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,056 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points;
812 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points;
815 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton or Trump?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Clinton 46% 49% 52%
Trump 45 45 42
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1
DK/NA 5 4 5

1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Made up 91% 89% 92%
Might change 8 10 7
DK/NA 1 1 1

2. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Strongly favorable 28% 22% 25%
Smwht favorable 11 12 11
Smwht unfavorable 6 8 4
Strongly unfavorable 48 50 53
Hvn’t hrd enough 4 5 4
REFUSED/DK/NA 1 2 2

3. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Strongly favorable 30% 29% 29%
Smwht favorable 9 11 15
Smwht unfavorable 7 7 6
Strongly unfavorable 48 48 45
Hvn’t hrd enough 5 3 3
REFUSED/DK/NA 2 2 3

4.(If chose Clinton q1) What is the main reason behind your vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in November: mainly because you like Hillary Clinton, mainly because Hillary Clinton is the party’s nominee, or mainly because you oppose Donald Trump?
LIKELY CLINTON VOTERS
FL OH PA

Like Clinton 42% 34% 37%
Party’s nominee 13 15 10
Oppose Trump 41 48 48
DK/NA 4 3 5

5. (If chose Trump q1) What is the main reason behind your vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in November: mainly because you like Donald Trump, mainly because Donald Trump is the party’s nominee, or mainly because you oppose Hillary Clinton?
LIKELY TRUMP VOTERS
FL OH PA

Like Trump 29% 26% 32%
Party’s nominee 10 9 9
Oppose Clinton 54 61 54
DK/NA 7 3 5

6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Clinton 43% 44% 48%
Trump 43 42 39
Johnson 7 8 7
Stein 3 3 3
SMONE ELSE(VOL) – 1 –
DK/NA 3 3 3

7. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Strongly favorable 42% 39% 44%
Smwht favorable 11 13 12
Smwht unfavorable 5 6 5
Strongly unfavorable 38 41 36
Hvn’t hrd enough – 1 2
REFUSED/DK/NA 3 1 1

8. Is your opinion of Michelle Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Strongly favorable 49% 45% 51%
Smwht favorable 12 13 12
Smwht unfavorable 8 5 7
Strongly unfavorable 19 22 18
Hvn’t hrd enough 9 12 9
REFUSED/DK/NA 3 2 3

9. Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Strongly favorable 35% 31% 34%
Smwht favorable 18 21 18
Smwht unfavorable 8 12 9
Strongly unfavorable 32 32 34
Hvn’t hrd enough 5 3 2
REFUSED/DK/NA 2 1 3

10. Is your opinion of Melania Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
LIKELY VOTERS…
FL OH PA

Strongly favorable 19% 16% 17%
Smwht favorable 12 11 11
Smwht unfavorable 7 7 8
Strongly unfavorable 16 14 13
Hvn’t hrd enough 43 50 46
REFUSED/DK/NA 4 3 4

Additional info by state:

Florida: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Ohio: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail
Pennsylvania: State Crosstabs Sample and Methodology detail