Demography as Destiny

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’
Bob Dylan, 1963

Tammy Baldwin made history last Tuesday night, two ways. She became the first Wisconsin woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate. She also became the first openly gay politician, from any state, to be elected to the U.S. Senate.

She won against a formidable opponent, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, a four-time governor and Secretary of Health and Human Services in the George W. Bush administration.
Baldwin’s successor in her legislative district is also openly gay, state Rep. Mark Pocan.

"At least 118 gay and lesbian candidates won their races," reported the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund on Wednesday morning.

Also, by voters in Maine and Maryland, gay marriage has been legalized for the first time via the ballot. Voters had previously rejected same-sex marriage in 32 out of 32 initiatives. President Obama had urged voters to approve the initiatives.

"This is a big day for gay women in America, and really, for all communities who aren’t the typical straight, white, wealthy men elected to Congress," said writer, activist, and political commentator Sally Kohn.

Kohn, a former community organizer, worked at the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force and lives with her partner Sarah Hansen and their 4-year-old daughter Willa in what the New York Times calls the "liberal bastion of Park Slope in Brooklyn."

Last December, with the times a-changin’, Kohn was hired as contributor at Fox News.

In August, the Democratic National Convention approved unprecedented language supporting gay marriage, following President Obama’s endorsement. The party platform at the Republican National Convention called for a constitutional amendment to define marriage as the union of one man and one woman.

A Harris Interactive poll in August showed gays favoring Obama over Romney by 67 percent to 23 percent. Responding to "If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party held the same position on gay rights, how would that impact your attitude towards voting for Republican candidates," 26 percent said they would be "more likely to vote Republican."

Related to what’s now being called "demography as political destiny," Romney won the white vote 59 percent to 39 percent in Tuesday’s election, the largest share of the white vote won by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
But that wasn’t enough to win, with white voters making up 72 percent of the electorate, down from 74 percent in 2008 and 87 percent in 1992.

White men, now a third of all voters, went for Romney by a 28 point margin, 64 percent to 36 percent. By a smaller but still substantial margin, white women voted for Romney over Obama by 57 percent to 43 percent.

In contrast, exit polls showed Obama winning 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, 93 percent of the black vote, and 73 percent of the Asian vote — three groups that make up 26 percent of the electorate.

Or Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) described it in August, "We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."

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Ralph R. Reiland is an associate professor of economics at Robert Morris University in Pittsburgh.

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Ralph R. Reiland
Phone: 412-527-2199
E-mail: [email protected].