Santorum Surges into Lead in PA Primary

Franklin & Marshall College Poll

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll…the 20th consecutive year of polling in Pennsylvania

Below are the highlights of the February 2012, Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvania voters. Complete results can be found at http://politics.fandm.edu

For Immediate release-Thursday, 2-23-12

The February 2012 Franklin and Marshall College Poll finds former US Senator Rick Santorum gaining momentum in his home state as he has nationally. Senator Santorum is currently well ahead of his Republican primary rivals in Pennsylvania, and he has trimmed President Barack Obama’s lead in the state compared to one month ago.

Complete results, including detailed methodology, can be found at [L]http://politics.fandm.edu[EL].

The Poll Highlights:

1. Rick Santorum’s victories in three primaries a few weeks ago helped propel his candidacy nationally, and this momentum has spilled over to Pennsylvania. His favorable rating among Pennsylvania Republicans has risen from 46% in January to 63% now. Mitt Romney’s favorable ratings have remained more consistent among Republicans, declining a bit from 46% to 40%.

2. Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney by a wide margin among Republicans, 45% to 16%. Equal proportions (46%) of Santorum and Romney supporters are still making up their minds about who they expect to support in the April Pennsylvania primary. A plurality (43%) of Santorum supporters says that Romney is their second choice for the nomination. Similarly, a plurality (43%) of Romney supporters says that Santorum is their second choice for the nomination.

3. Republicans in the state believe a strong moral character (36%) or having the right experience (23%) are the main qualities they desire in a nominee. Fewer cite the ability to beat President Obama (18%) or being a true conservative (13%) as being the most important characteristic they want in a nominee.

4. Santorum has closed the match-up with Obama to under 10 points and surpassed Romney in his match-up viability against the president.

February 2012: Obama 45%, Santorum 37%, other 7%, don’t know 12%;
January 2012: Obama 43%, Santorum 30%, other 8%, don’t know 19%;
October 2011: Obama 38%, Santorum 25%, other 11%, don’t know 26%.
February 2012: Obama 41%, Romney 33%, other 8%, don’t know 18%;
January 2012: Obama 41%, Romney 30%, other 8%, don’t know 24%;
October 2011: Obama 35%, Romney 26%, other 10%, percent, don’t know 30%.

5. Most (56%) of the state’s voters believe Pennsylvania is headed in the wrong direction, with fewer believing the state is heading in the right direction (31%) compared to January. PA voters (54%) feel Pennsylvania’s economy is in a similar condition as other states.

6. The majority of the electorate (55%) is confident in Governor Corbett’s ability to handle the state’s budget problems, and most (46%) feel it will take a combination of cutting state programs and increasing taxes in other to address the deficit.

These results reflect interviews with 592 Pennsylvania registered adults conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College from February 14-20, 2012 (sample error of +/- 4.0).

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is conducted under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle and is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.

Methodology:

The sample of registered voters was obtained from Voter Contact Services. Survey results were weighted (age, gender, and party) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the Pennsylvania Department of State.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.

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