Obama Leads in PA, but Support Soft

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Franklin & Marshall College Poll

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll…the 20th consecutive year of polling in Pennsylvania

Below are the highlights of the October, 2011 Franklin & Marshall College Poll of Pennsylvanians. Complete results can be found at http://politics.fandm.edu

For Immediate release-Thursday, 11-3-11

The October, 2011 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that despite tepid support among Pennsylvania voters President Barack Obama continues to lead his main Republican challengers. The survey also shows that Pennsylvania voters remain unenthusiastic about the performance of the state’s leading public officials, but does point to improvements in their ratings since August. In a test of five important issues currently before the state legislature, only transportation funding secures majority support as the top issue the state should be addressing.

Complete results, including detailed methodology, can be found at http://politics.fandm.edu.

The Poll Highlights:

1. More Pennsylvania adults (49%) believe the state is headed in the wrong direction than think (38%) it is headed in the right direction– a sentiment that is little changed during the past two years.

2. Pennsylvania voters remain pessimistic about the performance of the state’s leading political figures although there has been some slight improvement in their ratings since August. The job performance ratings for President Barack Obama (38% positive), Governor Tom Corbett (38% positive), and Senators Bob Casey (38% positive) and Pat Toomey (32% positive) are each more negative than positive.

3. More(52%) of the state’s voters believe it is time for a change than believe President Obama deserves re-election (42%), a view that is unchanged since August.

4. Mitt Romney fares best against the president in Pennsylvania, while Rick Perry trails the president significantly, but a large number of voters remain undecided in each of these match-up:
Obama 35 percent, Romney 26 percent, other 10 percent, don’t know 30 percent;
Obama 38 percent, Cain 24 percent, other 10 percent, don’t know 29 percent;
Obama 40 percent, Perry 20 percent, other 11 percent, don’t know 29 percent;
Obama 38 percent, Santorum 25 percent, other 11 percent, don’t know 26 percent.

5. Only one in five voters (22%) believes the state legislature is doing an excellent or good job, but this is an improvement over recent surveys; it is the first time since June 2009 that the legislature’s positive job performance rating has risen above twenty percent.

6. Of five issues currently before the state legislature, only transportation funding secures majority support (55%) as the most important/one of the most important issues the state should address.

These results reflect interviews with 525 Pennsylvania adults (419 registered voter) conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College from October 24-31, 2011 (sample error of +/- 4.3 for adults and +/- 4.8 for registered voters).

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is conducted under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle and is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.

Methodology:

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted October 24 – 30, 2011. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent the responses of 525 adult residents of Pennsylvania, including 419 registered adults. Telephone numbers for the survey were generated using random digit dialing with a cell phone supplement, and respondents were randomly selected from within each household. Survey results were weighted (age, education, race, region, and gender) using an iterative weighting algorithm. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.3 percentage points. The sample error for registered adults is +/- 4.8 percentage points.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs

Franklin & Marshall College
PO Box 3003
Lancaster, PA 17604

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