F&M Poll: Fitzpatrick Leading Murphy

For immediate release: Thursday, September 23, 2010.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll…the 19th consecutive year of polling in Pennsylvania

Please find attached and below the results of the September, 2010 Franklin & Marshall College Poll of voters in Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district. Complete results can be found in the attachment or shortly at http://politics.fandm.edu.

Key Findings

• In the 8th congressional district, Mike Fitzpatrick has an advantage over incumbent Patrick Murphy among all registered adults, 46% to 36%, with about one in five (17%) adults still undecided. Fitzpatrick’s advantage is larger among those more likely to vote, 49% to 35%, with 15% undecided. The survey finds that Fitzpatrick’s advantage increases as the likely voter screen becomes more restrictive.

• Two in five (41%) registered adults in the district rate Representative Murphy’s job performance as "excellent" or "good." About the same proportion (40%) believe he deserves re-election while almost half (47%) believes it is time for a change.

• In the PA senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak in the district among all registered adults, 39% to 30%, and among likely voters, 42% to 32%. In the gubernatorial race, Tom Corbett leads Dan Onorato among registered adults, 37% to 29%, and among likely voters, 40% to 30%. Many registered adults in the 8th CD are still undecided about their choices for US senate (30%) and governor (34%).

• Unemployment and the economy (57%) are the primary issues facing respondents and their families in the district.

• The positive job performance rating for President Obama (37%) is low in the district, but is similar to his overall state-wide ratings. Governor Rendell’s positive job performance rating (46%) is higher than the president’s in the district and is also higher than his overall state-wide rating.

Methodology

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 14-19, 2010. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College under the direction of the poll’s Director Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Head Methodologist Berwood Yost, and Senior Project Manager Angela Knittle. The data included in this release represent the responses of 464 registered adult residents of the 8th congressional district in Pennsylvania, including 201 Democrats, 210 Republicans, 46 registered as Independent/Other, and 7 who refused to identify party. Telephone numbers for the survey were randomly generated using state voter registration lists. The sample error for registered adults is +/- 4.5 percentage points. The subsample of likely voters (n=379) has a sample error of +/- 5.0 percentage points.

The Franklin & Marshall College Poll is produced in conjunction with the Philadelphia Daily News, WGAL-TV (South Central PA), Pittsburgh Tribune Review, WTAE-TV (Pittsburgh), WPVI-TV6/ABC (Philadelphia), Times-Shamrock Newspapers, Harrisburg Patriot-News, and Lancaster Newspapers. It may be used in whole or in part, provided any use is attributed to Franklin & Marshall College.

Dr. G. Terry Madonna
Director, Center for Politics and Public Affairs
Director, Franklin and Marshall College Poll
Professor of Public Affairs
Franklin & Marshall College
P.O. Box 3003
Lancaster, PA. 17604
(717) 291-4052 Office
(717) 575-2164 Cell
(717) 358-4666 Fax
[email protected]